To paraphrase the great Charles Barkley’s quote when he was asked what he knew about Angola before the Dream Team played them during the 1992 Summer Olympics in Barcelona, “I don’t know anything about Neel Kashkari, but Neel Kashkari’s in trouble.”
Governor Brown might beat Kashkari by 50% in November. I’m curious to see whether Governor Brown, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom, or Attorney General Kamala Harris wins re-election by a larger margin. Probably Brown, who would be a Presidential contender in 2016 if he wasn’t going to be 78 years old that year. But Newsom and Harris are rising stars in the Democratic Party both in California and nationally. Both of them are young and probably have their eyes on being Governor in 2018, and both of them could probably win. Newsom has deeper pockets, but Harris has wider appeal. Interestingly enough, Newsom likely would have the backing of the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party while Harris would have the support of the Obama wing. Back in 2008 — actually, way back in 2007 after Obama formed his exploratory committee — Kamala (who was District Attorney of San Francisco at the time) was the first elected official in California to fully support Obama. I remember her driving herself up to Sacramento in the evenings to help out at events where there were less than a dozen people and this way as early as March 2007 (Obama officially jumped in the race in February), so I imagine the President will do whatever he can for her in the future.
I would bet that the California Democratic Party will be watching the returns of the races of Newsom and Harris much closer than Governor Brown’s race. All three are certain to be re-elected, but the CDP will be looking for its next Governor between Newsom and Harris (with Sacramento Mayor Kevin Johnson as a dark horse), so the more impressive margin of victory could have future implications. Also, this might sound a little crazy if you’re unfamiliar with Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom, but I could easily see either one of them as the next Vice President of the United States, so you might want to get to know them.
Jimmy Carter wasn’t a bad nominee — I mean, he did win the election — he just ended up being a failure as President. You can’t really fault the Democrats for nominating Carter especially since, like I said, he actually won.
Looking back, it does seem crazy that the field of Democrats running for President in 1976 was so unimpressive, especially since the Democrats were facing a President in Gerald Ford who had been appointed to the Vice Presidency and assumed the Presidency following Nixon’s resignation. The Republican Party was in disarray because of Watergate and President Ford was challenged for the GOP nomination by Ronald Reagan, which really hurt his campaign against Carter in 1976 and might have been a bigger reason for Ford’s loss than anything else. Yet, Carter wasn’t really seriously challenged during his bid for the Democratic nomination even though he was a dark horse candidate. Carter’s major rivals only had strength in certain regions and no broad support, so Carter appealed to way more Americans than people like George Wallace, Morris Udall, and Henry Jackson (who weren’t all that appealing in the first place). Other Democratic hopefuls were Hubert H. Humphrey, who was dying, and California Governor Jerry Brown, who was 38 years old and had only been in office for a year. Brown might have caused Carter some trouble — in fact, he won the California primary — but he jumped into the campaign WAY too late and never had a chance to make a dent in the huge delegate lead that Carter had already accumulated.
The 1976 election is a fascinating one for many reasons and it’s definitely surprising that the Democrats didn’t have a more impressive field of contenders battling for the nomination in an election that was so winnable that a largely unknown one-term Governor of Georgia ended up as President. Quite frankly, the talent roster of top-level Democrats simply wasn’t very deep in the 1970s. Ted Kennedy was probably the most appealing possible Democratic Presidential candidate in 1976, but he was still on the sidelines because of Chappaquiddick.
I’m a big Jerry Brown fan, and I think he’s doing about as good of a job as anybody could possibly do as Governor of California.
Plus, how can you not love a guy who actually said this at a press conference: “Analysis paralysis is not why I came back. I want to get shit done.”
None of the campaigns were at the right time. That’s the problem. Poor Jerry Brown has been the victim of terrible timing.
In 1976, Brown had only been Governor of California for one year and was just 38 years old. In reality, it was way too early for him to make a step toward the Presidency. Oddly enough, it was also the closest that he ever got to winning the Democratic Presidential nomination. Brown had name recognition because he was making headlines in California, was a fresh face who appeared to be at the forefront of the next generation of American politicians, and was the son of a former California Governor. He made a good showing in some of the Democratic primaries in 1976, but he entered the race too late. Jimmy Carter had too much of a head start and Brown simply couldn’t catch him. Despite all of that, 1976 was probably his best shot.
The 1980 bid was rough because he was challenging an incumbent President for his own party’s nomination. Governor Brown wasn’t the only Democrat challenging President Carter in 1980 and he wasn’t the most exciting or buzzworthy with the media — that was Senator Edward Kennedy. Brown also faced backlash back home in California because it was the second time he sought the Presidency since being elected Governor. Californians wanted him at work in Sacramento rather than hitting the trail in Iowa and New Hampshire. Even if he had overcome Carter for the 1980 Democratic nomination (not an easy task despite Carter’s unpopularity since Kennedy couldn’t beat him, either), Brown would have most likely been trounced in the general election by the man who preceded him as Governor of California — Ronald Reagan.
Jerry Brown’s 1992 campaign for the Democratic nomination was a very interesting one, largely because of the genuine animosity between Brown and the eventual nominee (and President) Bill Clinton. There was a nasty confrontation in one of the Democratic debates where it looked for a moment like Clinton might actually punch Brown. Because of his low-budget fundraising, Brown shouldn’t have done as well as he did in 1992, but he started picking up some momentum in the later primaries. Unfortunately for Brown, he needed some of the earlier primaries to keep Clinton from clinching the nomination from the convention in order to force a brokered convention. The dislike between Clinton and Brown was apparent at the Democratic National Convention when Brown refused to endorse Clinton during Brown’s speech.
Of the three bids that Jerry Brown made — 1976, 1980, and 1992 — it was the first attempt in 1976 that was probably the closest Brown came to winning the Democratic nomination. The best chance that Brown might have had to become President was actually in a year that he didn’t run — 1988. The field was wide-open for Democrats and Republicans because the election of then-Vice President George H.W. Bush was no sure thing. As I said, however, Brown’s timing when it came to seeking the Presidency has been rather unfortunate.
That hasn’t changed, by the way. Right now, Jerry Brown looks like he will easily be re-elected as Governor of California in 2014. From what I have read (granted, I haven’t lived in California since 2010), Brown has been doing a better-than-expected job and his popularity is high. Because of the size of the state, its worth in the Electoral College, and the nature of the job, California’s Governors are always potential Presidential contenders. Unfortunately for Governor Brown, the man who was once the youngest Governor in California’s history is now the oldest Governor in California’s history and he’ll be 78 years old in 2016 — way too old to be a serious contender for the Presidency. If he were 15 years younger, Brown would be a frontrunner in 2016
That’s tough to say because it’s hard to rank the Governors of states that you don’t live in. I’ll just go with my personal experience from living in California under several Governors because there is no way that Rick Perry, Governor of Texas while I lived there for a year, would ever make it on any list of mine. And, while I live in Missouri now and it seems like Governor Jay Nixon is a solid executive, I still don’t know a whole lot about him.
From my experience in California, I have a soft spot for Governor Gray Davis, whose recall in 2003 was a complete travesty. Time will vindicate Governor Davis — in fact, I think it has already started to, especially now that we know what we know about Enron and the electricity crisis which was a big factor in Governor Davis’s downfall. Governor Davis was a hard-working, smart, effective public servant from his service in Vietnam to his devotion to California as Governor Brown’s chief of staff, State Assemblyman, State Controller, Lieutenant Governor, and then Governor. With the trajectory he was on up until his Gubernatorial re-election in 2002, Davis was heading to national prominence. Because he wasn’t very charismatic or an inspiring public speaker, I don’t think he the Presidency was a realistic goal, but he certainly could have been Vice President and probably would have been on John Kerry’s short list in 2004.
But Governor Davis got a raw deal from Californians. He became the scapegoat for problems that weren’t entirely his fault and he was the victim of a smear campaign that he couldn’t combat while trying to do his job and that he couldn’t outspend. Plus, he had just won re-election just a few months before the recall campaign got going. Gray Davis won re-election in November 2002 and his opponents decided that they wanted a do-over. And then, in the midst of the circus-like atmosphere of the recall campaign, Arnold Schwarzenegger stepped into the spotlight and the voters of California got starry-eyed. It was a shitty deal and Governor Davis deserved better from California. Yet, he accepted the results of the recall with humility and never said a cross word about it or the voters or his opponents. And he was incredibly helpful to Governor Schwarzenegger, both during the transition and after Schwarzenegger was inaugurated.
Gray Davis was the first politician who inspired me to get involved in a campaign and go to work for a candidate. In 1998, I was only 18, but Davis — the Lieutenant Governor at the time — seemed like the perfect candidate for Governor. He had paid his dues and undoubtedly had the best resume of any Gubernatorial candidate on the scene. I went to a rally downtown near the State Capitol (where the legendary, beloved, and late Mayor of Sacramento Joe Serna stepped on my shoe and then talked to me for ten minutes about public service) and everything that Gray Davis said gave me confidence in him and his vision for California. When I briefly met Gray Davis that day, I felt like he blocked everyone else out and focused on me for the two minutes that I had his attention. As an 18-year-old, that was huge. Later, of course, I realized that all great politicians are able to do that. But I was sold. And I still am. I went to work for Gray Davis’s campaign in 1998 and on Election night, for the first time, I felt that amazing feeling of having your candidate win and it was a validation of all of the work we had done. It was the moment where I got bit by the bug of working on high-stakes political campaigns. Fifteen years later, when I see a candidate that piques my interest, I still get that itch to sign up, start training volunteers, canvass neighborhoods, register voters, and phone bank (okay…maybe not phone banking…I hate that). I’ll never forget that it was Governor Davis that instilled that feeling in me.
I was too young to experience Jerry Brown’s first time as Governor of California (1975-1983), but I knew his reputation and was always fascinated by him. I saw Governor Brown speak a few times when he was Mayor of Oakland and I met him when he was California’s Attorney General and always hoped that he would make another run for Governor. Of course, once he did (in 2010), I had moved out of California.
However, since his election, I have followed him from outside of the state and think that he’s done an amazing job as Governor. From what I’ve seen, he is actually getting California moving in the right direction when it’s seemed for so long like the state was broken and might be too big and too broke and too much to fix. Apparently (and this is from what I understand from what I read and hear out here in Missouri), Governor Brown has done such a remarkable job that some of the younger Democrats and potential Republicans who considered taking him on in 2014 (when Governor Brown will be 76) aren’t even going to risk it. One friend I have back in Sacramento who is a political consultant said that, if Governor Brown were 10 or 15 years younger, he’d be a viable Presidential candidate in 2016 (Brown made unsuccessful bids for the Presidency in 1976, 1980, and 1992). So, I’m going to go ahead and count Jerry Brown as one of my favorite Governors, too.
Oh, and I had no experience living under him or in his state, but I always thought Jesse “The Body” Ventura’s shocking election as Governor of Minnesota in 1998 was awesome. I loved his unorthodox campaign ads and the fact that he was a professional wrestler and the party he had after his inauguration where he wore a pink boa and some of the funky clothes he used to wear. I liked the fact that he was an independent and that he named his autobiography I Ain’t Got Time To Bleed (BOOK•KINDLE) after his famous line in Predator. I enjoyed his candor and thought it was refreshing, and it was fun to see the incumbent Governor of Minnesota not only be the special referee at SummerSlam but throw Shane McMahon out of the ring and yell, “That’s for your old man, you little bastard!”. That’s not something you’d ever see his successor, Tim Pawlenty, or Iowa’s long-serving Governor Terry Branstad do.
So, from afar, I thought Governor Ventura was pretty cool. Then he left office and became a complete nutjob. I mean, he may have always been one, but when he was Jesse “The Body”, he was fun. Former Governor Ventura, however, is totally unbearable to watch or listen to. Of course, everything is a conspiracy to him, so he’ll probably find this post and accuse me of being part of the Illuminati. It’s easy for me to say that Governor Ventura was fun to watch from a couple of thousand miles away, but I’m sure the novelty wore off pretty quickly for the people of Minnesota. And I’m sure people said the same thing about Governor Schwarzenegger.
We’ll stick with Gray Davis and Jerry Brown as my favorites and, from what I’ve seen of him, I like Governor Nixon here in Missouri.
(By the way, Missourians, Gov. Nixon is term-limited, so the Governor’s Mansion is wide-open in 2016. Anthony for Governor? Who wants to donate?)