No, if Biden runs for President in 2016 (and I think he will), I think he’ll make a serious go at it and hold on as long as he can. He took a shot in 1988 and 2008 and 2016 will likely be his last chance — both because of his age (he’ll turn 74 a couple weeks after Election Day 2016) and because his national profile will never be higher than it will in 2016 after eight years as one of the most active and influential Vice Presidents in American History.
If Biden isn’t elected President, I can’t see him accepting a Cabinet position — even Secretary of State. I think it’s more likely that he would try to return to the Senate. Biden is a creature of the Senate. He spent most of his life there and it obviously is a very special place for him. I really can’t see him retiring. He’s a politician. It’s what he does, and I think it’s what he’ll always do, and if the Presidency isn’t in the cards for him, the Senate will be a welcome place to return to.